Get ready for a thrilling showdown at the 2025 ATP Almaty Open final, where two contrasting styles collide in a battle that could redefine this season’s narrative. Daniil Medvedev faces Corentin Moutet in what promises to be a gripping finale, but who will emerge victorious? Here at LWOT, we’re breaking down the matchup and offering our prediction—but first, let’s dive into what makes this clash so compelling.
Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet: A Tale of Two Players
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-1 Moutet
For Daniil Medvedev, 2025 has been a year of mixed fortunes. The Russian star boasts a solid 34-21 win-loss record, yet by his lofty standards, a season without a title feels like uncharted territory. Medvedev narrowly avoided another semifinal exit, rallying from a first-set loss to James Duckworth to secure his spot in just his second final of the year—his first since Halle, where he suffered a straight-sets defeat. Can he turn the tide this time?
But here’s where it gets intriguing: Medvedev’s opponent, Corentin Moutet, has been on a tear. The Frenchman has yet to drop a set this week and arrives in top form after a semifinal run in Hangzhou. Moutet’s consistency and momentum make him a formidable challenger, but this is the part most people miss: his baseline game, while lacking raw power, thrives on court coverage and tactical variety—a style that could either neutralize Medvedev’s strengths or play right into his hands.
The Matchup: Power vs. Precision
On paper, Moutet seems like the ideal opponent for Medvedev’s baseline-dominated game. The Frenchman’s serve isn’t overwhelming, and his groundstrokes, while steady, lack the aggression to consistently trouble top players. However, Moutet’s ability to mix up spins, angles, and pace could disrupt Medvedev’s rhythm—a strategy that earned him a win over the Russian earlier this year. And this is where it gets controversial: Could Moutet’s unorthodox approach once again throw Medvedev off his game, or will the Russian’s experience and firepower prevail?
What to Expect
This final is shaping up to be a tight, tactical battle. Moutet is likely to start strong, leveraging his current form and confidence. However, Medvedev has shown glimpses of his best tennis in Shanghai and this week, suggesting he’s ready to impose his game. If the Russian can dictate from the baseline and capitalize on his superior serve, he should be able to break down Moutet’s defenses. Yet, here’s the question that divides opinions: Can Medvedev maintain the mental focus needed to close out a tight match, or will Moutet’s resilience force a surprise upset?
Prediction: Medvedev in 3 sets.
This final isn’t just about who wins—it’s about whether Medvedev can reclaim his winning ways or if Moutet can cement his rise as a dark horse contender. What do you think? Will Medvedev’s power prevail, or will Moutet’s craftiness steal the show? Let us know in the comments below!
Main photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
