Tadej Pogačar's dominance in the cycling world is a phenomenon that just keeps getting more intriguing. The question on everyone's lips: How is he still getting stronger?
Let's dive into the data and uncover the secrets behind Pogačar's incredible performance at Il Lombardia, and explore how he's evolved as a cyclist.
In my previous analysis, I offered strategies for the professional peloton to tackle Pogačar, but at the 119th edition of Il Lombardia, it seemed like no one was listening. The outcome? A devastating display of power from the world champion.
The final monument race of the 2025 season, a grueling 241.5km with over 4,600 meters of climbing, served as the perfect stage for Pogačar's brilliance. The mountainous finale, including the Passo Della Crocetta, Passo di Ganda, and Colle Aperto, was where the real battle began.
Everyone expected Pogačar to attack on the Passo di Ganda, but the question was, how would the peloton respond? Some riders, like Quinn Simmons, had a brilliant strategy, attacking from the start and forming a breakaway group that led for most of the race. By the end, Simmons had averaged an incredible 357 watts (NP 390 watts) for nearly six hours, yet he didn't even make the podium.
The real surprise was the team tactics. Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, with the race favorite Pogačar, were not leading the peloton. Instead, it was Primož Roglič's team doing most of the work, only to finish with their best rider in 22nd place. A curious strategy indeed.
The only way to beat Pogačar seemed to be getting far enough ahead on the Passo di Ganda to stay within reach after his inevitable catch-up. Simmons, the last survivor of the breakaway, had a 2:45 lead as he began the climb, but it wasn't enough. Jay Vine and UAE Team Emirates-XRG reeled him in, setting up Pogačar's attack.
Pogačar's move was unstoppable. He soloed off the front, and the race was effectively over. Remco Evenepoel and Michael Storer gave their best, finishing second and third, respectively. Simmons held on for fourth, while Isaac Del Toro won the sprint for fifth.
But this article isn't just about Pogačar's win. It's about analyzing his 2025 season and his progression (or regression) over the years.
Pogačar's attack on Passo di Ganda was one of the most impressive climbing performances of his career. It wasn't just the ease of his victory; it was the raw power he displayed. Before his attack, the lead group was already riding at an average of 7 watts per kilogram (w/kg).
Oscar Onley, who was following the UAE Team Emirates-XRG train, averaged an impressive 6.7 w/kg for the first half of the Passo di Ganda climb, which had an average gradient of 6.7%. Onley's speed of 26 kph during this section suggests he was drafting and saving at least 10-20 watts.
When Vine finished his pull, Pogačar launched with an incredible 950 watts, sustaining 470 watts for six minutes to create a decisive gap. He averaged 390 watts for the final 49:44 of Il Lombardia, but his normalized power was even higher, considering the corners, attacks, and descents.
Let's break down Pogačar's effort on Passo di Ganda:
Passo di Ganda Performance:
- Time: 21:19
- Estimated Average Power: ~465 watts (7.2 w/kg)
- VAM: 1,869 Vm/h
This performance is comparable to his effort in the Tour de France's stage 13 time trial on Peyragudes, where he pushed an estimated 7.5 w/kg for 17:19. However, the Peyragudes effort was fresh, whereas the Passo di Ganda attack came after expending 4,500 kJs.
Peyragudes Performance:
- Time: 17:19
- Estimated Average Power: ~475 watts (7.5 w/kg)
- VAM: 1,960 Vm/h
It's worth noting that Pogačar's effort on Passo di Ganda didn't end at the top of the climb. He still had 40km to go, and he maintained an impressive 350-400 watts for the remainder of the race, which is still a solid 5.5-6 w/kg after 5,000 kJs.
The improvement Pogačar has shown since 2023 is remarkable. In that year, he climbed Passo di Ganda in 23:07, an impressive feat at the time. But this year's effort was nearly two minutes faster, a difference that's hard to fathom.
Even accounting for possible headwinds, equipment, and tactics, a two-minute improvement is extraordinary, representing a 9% increase in speed.
Velon's publication of Pogačar's data from last year's Il Lombardia win, where he averaged 340 watts for over an hour, highlights the magnitude of his improvement. This year, he averaged 390 watts for 50 minutes, a significant difference.
What we're witnessing isn't just the addition of heat training and shorter cranks. It's the long-term impact of these changes. The key is consistent, long-term improvement.
This principle can be applied to any cyclist's training. Identify what works for you - be it heat training, VO2 Max intervals, or core work - and commit to it for the long haul. You'll see small gains initially, but the real progress comes over time.
Remember, your progress won't be linear. It's more like a staircase, with some weeks of improvement and others of stagnation. But consistency pays off in the long run. Just look at Pogačar's 2025 season.
He won his fourth Tour de France, but it wasn't his best performance, and he didn't break his 2024 records. He won the Ronde van Vlaanderen and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, but fell short at Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. Even at the UCI Road World Championships, he didn't podium in the time trial, but he bounced back to dominate the road race and claim his second rainbow jersey.
Pogačar's journey is a testament to the power of consistent, long-term improvement. It's a lesson for all cyclists and a reminder that the road to success is often a marathon, not a sprint.
Data courtesy of Strava, analyzed using the Strava Sauce extension.
Riders:
- Tadej Pogačar
- Oscar Onley
- Quinn Simmons
